Introduction:

2012 China economic report is a detailed analysis and prediction of the current situation of China economy, designed to help the enterprises and investors who have already or be about to enter Chinese market to accurately grasp the economic situation of China, help to make the right investment and management decisions.

2012 China economic report is co-authored by experts and scholars of CHINACIR, Chinese government departments, scientific research groups, higher learning institutions and other authoritative research institutions.

Using the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods, the experts made a thorough analysis of 2012 China macro-economic and micro-economic situations, especially the global financial crisis and its impact on chinese economy. In the economic report, our experts also put forward forecast and analysis for the economy situation of next future years. 

Report Content

Chapter 1 China Economic Review (the first half of 2012)

Section 1 Economic growth has been moderately in a slowdown
1. In the first half of 2012, China economic growth has been a slight downwards.
2. Price inflation down steadily, inflation pressures have eased.
3. The growth of M1 remains stable, but it will be decline after seasonal adjustment.

Section 2 Overview of three big demands
1. Consumption growth slowed down slightly.
2. Investment growth is stable but decreased slightly.
3. The growth of export & import dropped sharply.

Section 3 China's current economic characteristics
1. Analysis of China chief economic indicators.
2. China's current economic and operating characteristics.
3. Correct realize and understand current economic callback.

Chapter 2 2011 China Economic Outlook

Section 1 2012 China's economic performance is expected to slow down into a stabilization
1. 2012 Growth rate of GDP is expected to be 8% around.
2. China's economic performance in 2012 will appear "first slow down, then stable"trend.
3. Domestic demand is in a short-term contraction, but is expected to gradually stabilize.
4. Inflation pressure is going down.
5. External environment trends better, export growth will pick up somewhat.

Section 2 Forecast of 2012 China major economic indexes
1. Prediction of fixed assets investment.
2. Forecast of total retail sales.
3. Forecast of export and import.
4. Forecast of profits of industrial enterprises above designated size.

Section 3 Macroeconomic policy outlook in the second half of 2012
1. Continue to use the proactive fiscal policies to guide the adjustment of economic structure.
2. Fine-tune monetary policy moderately, as the market mechanism improvement to be the main tone.
3. Structural tax cuts to promote economic structural adjustment.
4. Continue to expend consumption.

Chapter 3 2012 China economic hot spots

Section 1 Hot spots of economic running
1. Consumption will become the first driving factor of China economic growth.
2. Profits of industrial enterprises unexpected to decline.
3. Funds outstanding for foreign exchange is still in slow growth.

Section 2 Major macroeconomic policies
1. The State Council: Steady growth is more important.
2. China central bank have lowered deposit reserve ratio for twice. Monetary policy is timely fine-tuned for economic growth.
3. The State Council to adjust import tariff for promoting trade balance.
4. The central bank to adjust RMB against USD daily trading band for second time.
5. Encourage private investment, more sectors will be opened to private capital.

Chapter 4 Exclusive conclusion and suggestions from CHINACIR

Section 1 Main conclusions and perspectives of the report.

Section 2 Exclusive Conclusions and Suggestion.
1. Economic policies are basically stable with timely and appropriate fine-tuning.
2. Attach importance to reform-oriented policies, intensify structural adjustment.
3. Support enterprise restructuring and development of SMEs.
4. Accelerate the reform of the petroleum, railway, electricity and other industries.
5. Push forward financial reform actively and steadily.

Charts:
Chart 2009-2012 China quarterly GDP and growth
Chart 2008-2012 Monthly change of China's CPI, PPI
Chart 2009-2012 Growth rate of chinese monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods year-on-year
Chart 2008-2012 Monthly change of China foreign trade
Chart 2010-2012 China GDP and the actual growth rate
Chart 2010-2012 China import and growth rate
Chart 2010-2012 China export and growth rate
Chart 2010-2012 China total retail sales of social consumer goods and growth rate
Chart 2010-2012 China fixed assets investment and increase rate
Chart 2010-2012 Appreciation of China exchange rate
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